Bitcoin [BTC] Monthly Returns Since 2014 Gives a 50-50 Chance of Positive Returns
Coinmetrics records Bitcoin [BTC] data from dating from August 2010. It is one of rare sources where one can capture the pre-2014 market statistics.
In the beginning of last year, Thomas Lee, from Fundstrat had introduced the 10 best days in Bitcoin analysis. According to their findings, a high proportion of gains in Bitcoin in a year is concentrated around 10 days with massive surges. Hence, ‘Hodling in the best stratergy.’
2/ Reminder that BTC generally generates all of its performance within 10D of any year.
–ex the top 10 days, BTC is down 25% annually since 2013 pic.twitter.com/zoEocEEZvu
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) April 2, 2019
Moving on, the data by Coinmetrics also records the ROI for 30 days in Bitcoin [BTC]. Here, I have attempted to see the over-all performance of Bitcoin on a month-month basis (first of every month*).
113 Months in Bitcoin [BTC] Since 08/2010
Bitcoin has been around since 2009, recently we celebrated the genesis block on 3rd January and 12th January 2020 marks the 11th year of the first transaction in Bitcoin.
The data records of a time when the price of a Bitcoin was below $0.1. During the time, it was just traded and mined by the tech savvy from or around the Silicon Valley.
Nevertheless, according to their data, out of 113 months, Bitcoin has given a positive return on 65 of them compared to 48 months in the red.
The mean ROI monthly on positive months is over 45%, while on the negative months it is about 15%.
Monthly Returns Since 2014
Now if we see the data from 2014, things get much more interesting. Out of the 73 months since January 2014, the monthly returns on the 1st of each month has been positive on 37 instances and negative on 36. A 50-50% ratio.
There are many instances where short-sighted thinking leads to FOMO and FUD around a month or two after making the investment. Nevertheless, ‘hodling’ and building a long term trade plan is the best strategy with Bitcoin.
The mean return on positive months is 23.6%. Moreover, the mean return of negative months is -14.4%.